THERE has been quite a deal of speculation in the saleyards about what might happen to lamb prices, short and long term, early in the New Year.
Meat & Livestock Australia's National Livestock Reporting Service also focused on this via a phone link-up.
Young lamb prices in Western Australia have hit the $6.24 a kilogram carcase weight mark at Midlands, while selling mainly between $4.50-$5/kg at Dublin and Naracoorte.
A couple of years ago, prices being paid for lambs in WA - compared with South Australia - were pretty miserable. And skins attracted about half the price.
So it was of little wonder that many lamb and sheep producers over the border bailed out of the industry.
The lower prices also led to one SA processor and another in Victoria sourcing lambs out of Midlands and Katanning and then trucking them back to SA at prices slightly lower than those being paid at markets there.
However, an expected shortage of lambs and the solid live export trade in WA should negate any thoughts of an eastern states' invasion.
There will probably be no WA foray over this side of the border when our young lamb prices are expected to drop with the selling season to start in earnest during the next few weeks.
Most buyers in the marketplace seem to think that direct prices will fall below $4.20/kg and perhaps even the $4/kg mark if numbers remain high.
There are also rumours that the United States market wants cheaper imports when negotiations start soon, and this will have ramifications for heavy lamb producers.
It will be interesting to see if last year's scenario is repeated when many lamb producers - because of the good supermarket prices being paid and a tightening season - started selling their annual drafts in August/September at 18-23kg for about $4.75-$4.80/kgcwt.
* Extract from a full market report in Stock Journal, August 27 issue.