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 Bright 2009 outlook for Aust beef still stands 

Bright 2009 outlook for Aust beef still stands

04 Feb, 2009 12:37 PM
Beef producers look set for a bright future in 2009 with better saleyard prices and a lift in export demand and volumes, according to Meat & Livestock Australia's market information and analysis manager Peter Weeks.

Despite the economic slowdown and recession in the United States, Japan and Europe, he said the fall in the Australian dollar would have a larger impact on markets.

"There will be a 15pc to 17pc rise in livestock prices," Mr Weeks said.

"The $A has already assisted Australian export prices to Japan."

While national herd numbers declined by 1pc to 27.8 million head in 2008, MLA economist Tim McRae said he expected numbers to rise by 2.8pc to 28.6m this year.

"This will be driven by northern Australia as the drought continues in the south," he said.

The drought was also expected to affect producer incomes in southern Australia, through herd size, variations in turnoff rates and drought-related expenditures.

MLA says that while southern beef farm incomes are expected to improve in 2008-09, they will be well below those forecast for northern Australia.

Mr McRae said that while cattle turnoff in 2009 would be back slightly, as producers looked to rebuild herds, from 2010 onwards this should increase.

Australian saleyard prices this year are forecast to average higher across all categories, according to Mr McRae.

The largest price increases are expected in young cattle and cows.

But despite higher cattle prices, hide prices are predicted to remain low, with Mr Weeks saying that it may be mid-year before any price rises are seen.

"This market is ultimately dependent on economies recovering as most go towards the making of luxury items," he said.

"It relies a lot on Europe and Russia and a lot of these importers stopped buying altogether last year as they knew the price of future products would be cheaper.

"Hides have generally gone down two thirds to 75pc for green hides in the past 12-months and they might rebound a third of the loss probably midway through this year."

Mr McRae said exports were expected to continue to build on last year's record weights, reaching 990,000 tonnes in 2009.

"With the low A$ we expect exports to swing to Japan and the US," he said.

"In 2009, we expect exports to Japan to increase by 3pc to 375,000t, while exports to Korea will be down 17pc, because the US is back in the Korean marketplace."

Despite MLA launching a 'Kids Love Beef' advertising campaign in Korea in late January, MLA expects the US to win back 100,000t in the Korean export beef market.

"It will be hard fought between the US and Australia in this market," Mr McRae said.

Russia had become Australia's fourth largest beef market in 2008, until a drop in sales later that year.

Exports are expected to decline by 59pc to 30,000t in 2009.

Altogether Mr McRae said the future outlook for beef was bright but there is a fair bit of uncertainty.

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comments


Date: Newest first | Oldest first
Mr Weeks and Mcrae, I thought we were suppose to have a herd of 30 million cattle by now. Who do you think is going to have the money to eat out and pay for high value beef products in this econmic climate.

Yeah, I can really see a big lift in the price of jap ox at the moment - probably down about 30 to 40pc so far this year.

Can't believe I have to pay a $5 transaction levy to keep you lot in a job.

Posted by R.T, 5/02/2009 7:54:17 PM

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S Kidman and Co's Tungali feedlot at Sedan, SA, has filled up again, after a period last year when most feedlots were running below capacity, because of high grain prices and uncertain beef export markets.
S Kidman and Co's Tungali feedlot at Sedan, SA, has filled up again, after a period last year when most feedlots were running below capacity, because of high grain prices and uncertain beef export markets.
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