“Without fundamental changes in how these economies operate, their impact on world grain markets will remain modest for some time to come,” Dr Brock wrote.

Russia specialist Dr Ariel Cohen of the conservative American think-tank The Heritage Foundation is equally scathing on the subject of Russia alone.

“Unfortunately for Russia, its Ag Ministry is corrupt,” Dr Cohen told Rural Press. “Even people close to Prime Minister Putin recognize that and have told me so.”

“The way to increase grain production in Russia is not through the universally failed state control and centralization process, but through developing private ownership of land, transparency, the rule of law, training of farmers, development of private rural finance, and entrepreneurship.”

“These are commodities which are in short supply in Russia since Stalin starved and destroyed the peasantry and collectivised agriculture in the 1930s. Russia still hasn't fully recovered from those genocidal policies.”

At this point, Dr Cohen said, Australia should be watching Ukraine and Kazakhstan with more concern than Russia.

But Gil Stassen, managing director of the International Livestock Resources & Information Centre (ILRIC) in Armidale, NSW, disagrees.

Mr Stassen identified Russia as an emerging agricultural powerhouse four years ago, and was subsequently instrumental in developing the lucrative live export trade in Australian beef seedstock to the Federation.

“Russians are a smart race,” said Mr Stassen, who has paid several extended visits to the country.

“They are sophisticated and committed. The Russian Ministry of Agriculture has committed billions of dollars toward developing the country’s agricultural capabilities, and I think it would be naive to think that Russia won’t be a threat to our own export markets in the short to medium term.”

“It’s important to remember that their agricultural development is market driven. They are already paying to import the commodities they want to produce. They are importing nearly a million metric tonnes of beef, they are the largest beef importer in the world, but they now have the capability and the desire to be a major agricultural player themselves.”

He agrees that infrastructure and corruption stand in the way of progress, but doesn’t believe these factors will halt development.

“My reading of the situation is that it is extremely dynamic. What’s happening there is mind-boggling. You can’t underestimate the Russians.”