Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) December 09 futures this week dipped below US450 cents a bushel, while ABB forward new crop wheat contracts hit a season low, dropping to below $200/t port in both the Geelong and Portland port zones in Victoria.

Matt Holgate, AWB Yarrawonga, said the industry was generally bearish about prospects in the short-term.

“We expect pool returns to come under pressure.”

This week, AWB released unchanged pool estimates for the APW paygrade.

The eastern pool is at $263/t, which taking out freight, storage and carry costs, places it about $20/t above the cash market.

Mr Holgate said the correlation between the Australian market and US futures in years of export parity meant there was little likelihood of a price recovery.

“The higher prices over the past couple of years have stimulated over-supply and that has dragged the price down.”

He said there was an ongoing market for quality, high-protein wheats, but said the premium was likely to remain at its current levels.

“We’d think AH1 (13pc protein) will remain trading above APW (10.5pc protein) by current levels of around $15/t.”

Bill Dudley, regional manager Louis Dreyfus, said buyers would purchase anything at the right price.

“They will buy a proportion of Black Sea grain, which may have some quality issues, then they will probably look for a parcel of Australian grain to blend with the lower-quality wheat.”

However, the protein premium is unlikely to extricate south-eastern Australian farmers from marketing woes, due to the soft finish currently being experienced.

Sam Heagney, Agfarm Horsham, predicted that protein levels were unlikely to be high, even through traditional hard wheat areas such as the Mallee.

“Even through the Mallee, the rain has meant they are unlikely to produce much above AH2 (11.5pc protein).”