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Confidence lacking in longer term forecasts

26 Nov, 2009 04:00 AM
FARMERS have little confidence in long-range weather forecasts given by Federal Government bodies such as the CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology, according to a Parliamentary report tabled this week.

Federal Member for Grey Rowan Ramsey, who was a member of the report's inquiry committee, said the low level of confidence was a big problem for the agricultural sector because some farmers relied on seasonal forecasts to make business decisions.

"The inquiry found with any forecasting past four or five months confidence started to drop within the farming community," he said. "People make seasonal decisions on things such as time of sowing, what they sow and how much.

"I don't think they (CSIRO/BOM) have a very good handle on that yet, so if we can improve that reliability it would mean more money in the bank for farmers."

The inquiry looked at how long-term forecasting was undertaken, its accuracy and possible improvements that could be made.

Public hearings were held across the country as part of the inquiry, and the committee received more than 30 submissions.

The report, 'Seasonal Forecast-ing in Australia', makes eight recommendations to the Federal Government on how to improve long-range forecasting procedures.

These include increased funding for research, new technologies and additional weather stations, if needed; completing a weather station audit to comply with World Meteorological Organisation guidelines; establishing a new institute of meteorological science; and identifying variables and influences, such as pollution, and how they impact on Australian weather.

It also recommends that BOM employment conditions be reviewed and a more secure tenure be provided to employees. This comes after staff numbers were cut at more than 20 weather stations across Australia in October last year.

Mr Ramsey hopes the report will challenge the government to reassess its modeling with particular focus on the influences on Australia's climate.

"The evidence we took was quite strong that pollution from South East Asia was having quite an influence on our weather," he said.

"I hope the recommendations will help them (weather forecasters) improve, to increase farmer confidence in using the service."

The report has been tabled for the government to consider and respond to in due course.

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WUDINNA mixed farmer and contractor Andrew Boylan (pictured) does not follow long-range forecasts, preferring to rely on past experience and planning month-by-month.
WUDINNA mixed farmer and contractor Andrew Boylan (pictured) does not follow long-range forecasts, preferring to rely on past experience and planning month-by-month.
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