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 Timbercorp "glitch", but hardwood forestry still strong 

Timbercorp "glitch", but hardwood forestry still strong

07 May, 2009 11:46 AM
MANAGED investment schemes (MIS) copped a lashing this week as the fallout settled on timber plantations in the South East of SA and western districts of Victoria after the demise of Timbercorp.

But Green Triangle regional plantations committee executive officer John Kellas believes the fundamentals of hardwood plantation forestry remain strong.

He says the set of economic pressures that have scuppered the $600 million company should not detract from the prospect of the industry continuing as a sustainable entity in the region.

"Someone will buy the management and harvesting rights for the trees, for which Timbercorp Forestry is responsible," Dr Kellas says.

"It's a great asset, but the big question is what value will be placed on it.

"Tree growth has not been what had been expected, partly because of drought.

"Individual forest or investment companies will have to assess the standing value and work out gross value, harvest and transport costs.

"However, my understanding is that serious offers, probably from Japanese trading houses, will be made."

While some farmers are unhappy about the projections made by the company in its MIS prospectus - citing actual returns far less than projected - most players are expressing confidence in the long-term viability of the industry.

Dr Kellas says the possibility of companies buying the forest assets purely as carbon sinks are unlikely.

"At this time, it's a bit ambivalent. No-one knows what the price of carbon will be and it's not something likely to be resolved in the short term," he says.

Dr Kellas says the MIS structure is complex and will be "a challenge" for the administrator.

The complex ownership structures, company management practices and exporting problems - especially in Japan where there was a backlog of woodchips - do not bode well for property values in the medium term.

"They've paid up to $7500 a hectare in this region so that's the very top end.

"They bought a lot of land at $1000-$2000/ha 10 years ago," Dr Kellas says.

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What Dr Kellas should discuss is the relationship between the $6000 to $7000 per hectare paid for land, how much the investors paid for a portion of a hectare and what it cost to plant and manage that investment and how much was left over at the end. Then go back ten or twelve years and put the numbers in for that time. Then discuss the science that was used to assess yield both 10 or twelve years ago that went into the offer to investors. He could then detail the science together with the ongoing - or should that be ongrowing - experience of yield as the early plantations have been harvested and how those yields have been used in the most recent offers. Here in the West, a UWA survey, probably ten years ago, showed that bluegum plantations, in the majority of the area where they are grown, decreased in yield after year seven. It would then be interesting to have someone detail the price of woodchips over time. I still think the investors should look at the Trade Practices Act and what it says about Deceptive and Misleading Conduct.
Posted by Roger Crook, 8/05/2009 9:04:21 AM

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Mingbool , SA, farmer Nic Kentish, who is returning former blue gum land to pasture, says figures Timbercorp quoted for yields a hectare and projected price a tonne at Portland, Victoria, were over-estimated.
Mingbool , SA, farmer Nic Kentish, who is returning former blue gum land to pasture, says figures Timbercorp quoted for yields a hectare and projected price a tonne at Portland, Victoria, were over-estimated.
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