News 
 National Rural News 
 Agribusiness and General 
 General 
 Weak $A lifts farm export prices, but stalls fuel relief 

Weak $A lifts farm export prices, but stalls fuel relief

15/08/2008 11:09:00 AM
Farmers are already winning from the sharp fall in the $A, with higher wool prices, and, in time, with stronger export prices for grains and other rural products.

Farmers expecting a retreat in global oil prices to bring a quick respite at the petrol pump, however, will be disappointed.

The $A on Friday morning was trading at $87.6c, down from its peaks nudging US98c in July.

Oil prices have slid more than one-fifth from their record highs of early July but Australians have seen only about a third of that benefit - about 8pc - at the bowser.

There's always a time-lag for changes in Singapore-priced fuel to flow through to local motorists.

But there's another factor this time around that will limit the savings in our fuel bills - the plunge in the Australian dollar.

"The fall in the price of petrol has only been about half of what it would have been, had the Australian dollar been unchanged against the US dollar in the last month," said economist Ray Attrill of 4Cast Ltd.

At the start of the week, the national average price per litre of unleaded petrol was $1.50, not far short of the peak in average prices of $1.63 four weeks earlier.

Diesel remains depressingly high at $1.77 cents per litre, also close to the weekly-peak of $1.88, according to the Australian Institute of Petroleum.

The limited fall in petrol prices comes as Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's plan to make retail fuel prices more transparent and competitive has all but been blocked.

Incoming independent Senator Nick Xenophon this week said he would oppose the plan, dubbed FuelWatch, citing doubts over its effectiveness.

Without his backing, and that of Family First Senator Steven Fielding, the FuelWatch bill will fail if the Coalition opposes it.

Political tussles aside, fuel prices will hinge on what happens to global oil prices and how much of that filters through to local motorists.

The Aussie dollar's value matters because oil is priced in US dollars, so a wilting local currency will curb benefits from falling international prices.

Crude is now about 22pc off its high of $US145.29 per barrel on July 3.

The Aussie dollar's slide didn't begin until July 15 but since then it's tumbled about 12pc to drop below 86 US cents yesterday, wiping out almost all the currency's gains for 2008 - and making imports of fuel and other goods more expensive.

Still, motorists will get some benefit from cheaper oil.

"At the moment energy prices are falling faster than the Australian dollar is falling, so there is still a net favourable impact on inflation," said economist Mr Attrill.

How much benefit, though, will depend on competition among retailers - with or without FuelWatch - and where the Australian dollar moves.

The dollar's slide is tipped to continue - the outlook is not promising.

Just last month, many currency strategists were forecasting parity for the Australian dollar and its US counterpart.

Now the predictions are being pared back to US92 cents by the year's end, and lower beyond then.

"Fundamentally, the Australian dollar is driven by commodity prices and domestic interest rates.

"Expectations for both are moving down," said ANZ economists Amy Auster in a note to clients.

She forecast the Australian dollar will sink to US83c by the end of 2009.

Print
Increase Text Size
Decrease Text Size
Page:
1



Comments


No comments yet. Be the first to comment below.

Post A Comment


Screen name  *
Email address  *
Remember me?
Comment  *
We invite and encourage our readers to post comments. Comments are moderated and will appear as soon as our editor has approved them. When posting comments you agree to be bound by our Terms and Conditions.

Q: Do you support the creation of a 'guest worker' scheme bringing in Pacific Islanders to counter Australian agriculture's labour shortages?

Yes
(69.1%)

No
(25%)

Undecided
(5.9%)

Total Votes: 508
Poll Date: 10/08/2008
26/11/2008 | If we're serious about roo farming, we'll need to start with a breeding program and kangaroo EBVs for marbling and tenderness.
 
Fuel Offer
 
Subscription
 
Horse Deals Australia
 
Media-Kit-08-09
 SEND...
 SAVE...
 SHARE...