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 Global economic meltdown hits farm prices 

Global economic meltdown hits farm prices

10/10/2008 9:38:00 AM
Global prices for grains and other farm produce have softened dramatically in recent months and farmers are starting to question how they will fare if the economic slowdown hits their profits just as they begin to emerge from drought.

While previously farmers welcomed a cut in interest rates, some were this week wondering whether the financial turmoil behind the move would further weaken demand for agricultural commodities if the world heads into recession.

Commodities prices have dropped from the historic highs of earlier this year, as investors desert the market and as demand moderates.

"All the froth has come off agricultural commodity prices now. We're almost back to the levels where we were two to three years ago," says ANZ economist, Paul Deane.

"All the hype of the commodity boom being different this time - well, obviously it wasn't, to some extent. But I think we're certainly getting back to the sound fundamentals and you'd have to think the market would start to find some support around those levels."

The fall in recent months in global prices for wheat - Australia's biggest agricultural export - show how a year that many believed was shaping as a boom for farmers could fall short.

Wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade have fallen about 40pc in US dollar terms in the past six months and are down 15 to 20pc in the past month.

But the steep depreciation of the Australian dollar since it approached parity with the greenback in July has shielded Australian farmers - who export about 60 to 70pc of their produce - from the full impact of the slide in commodity prices.

The Australian Stock Exchange price for milling wheat fell about five per cent in the past week to yesterday morning, 13pc in the past month and 25pc in the past six months.

Thus, farmers who planted a big grains crop when prices were at historic highs in March will be reaping substantially lower returns than seemed probable earlier this year.

Also, in the eastern States, many farmers would have hesitated to lock in prices when they were high, as they were burnt last year when the season failed and they could not deliver a crop that they had already forward-sold.

Despite the drop in prices, Mr Deane says that, to a certain extent, agriculture exports are shielded from the volatility affecting some other commodities, as demand for food is less elastic than for many products.

He says the outlook is still good for agriculture in the medium-term, given projections of global population growth and dietary changes.

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Comments


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If you're consolidated especially, time to lower the bar and take the path to potentially lesser pain in 2009 by cutting crop area back significantly to lessen exposure to the need for unrealistically high input prices (unless of course you already have them in the shed hopefully at '07 prices) and the whims and woes of the global economic maelstrom that is going to hit hard in 2009. Reducing debt has to be key and that may be more a function of spending less rather than trying to produce more. Its going to be a risky year without whatever weather paradigm we are thrown. Tighten the belt ... we are in uncharted territory.
Posted by Aaron Edmonds on 10/10/2008 5:55:01 PM
With all this turmoil in mind what will happen to our meat prices. Hopefully they will go up as the demand becomes greater. The dollar has come down so this should make some difference. Grain prices have slipped a little so there should be some profit for the lot feeders of the agriculture community surely.
Posted by blonde on 10/10/2008 7:53:22 PM

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